Top analyst expects BTC to outperform legacy indices

Bitcoin continues to hold above the $19,000 mark even as currency woes wreaked havoc across stocks and other legacy markets this week.

After dipping to lows beneath $18,600, Bitcoin bounced as high as $20,300 before paring the gains amid a highly volatile market that also saw the S&P 500 Index notch losses that puts it on course for three consecutive quarterly losses. It’d be the first time the index has registered this kind of performance since 2009.

BTC/S&P 500

If stocks face another sell-off and the tumbling continues in the face of a Fed tightening and concerns of a recession, Dylan Leclair, a senior crypto analyst, says the market could see a BTC outperformance against equities.

According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s “relative strength” against legacy indices has been encouraging, pointing to a BTC/S&P 500 chart.

Encouraging relative strength from the orange coin against legacy indices.

Still think a long lasting “decoupling” is highly unlikely in this stage, but relative outperformance is a decent start.

All eyes on FX, global bonds, and equities for the direction of the next move. pic.twitter.com/Enfbl0vn2R

— Dylan LeClair 🟠 (@DylanLeClair_) September 29, 2022

While he doesn’t expect the “decoupling” to be long lasting given broader market conditions, he still thinks the benchmark cryptocurrency could master a decent run against the index. What investors might have to watch out for, he tweeted, is what happens next within the legacy financial markets – equities, FX and global bonds.

The analyst however warns of a potential sell-off for Bitcoin should there be a “huge illiquidity event.” He said:

“Still convicted in my view of a legacy system vol event coming – it’s clear that liquidity tide is drawing out. BTC/USD exchange rate won’t be insulated from a huge illiquidity event, because nothing except USD & vol will.”

Bitcoin was trading around $19,260 on Friday morning (09:45 am ET), just in the green on the day but down 1.2% this past week. The S&P 500 opened higher lower and was at 3,634, more than 1.4% down in the past five days.